The Big Inning

The beginning

September 16, 2004 was the watershed date (no pun intended) for the Pensacola area real estate market. It was the night Hurricane Ivan directly impacted the area and catalyzed what had been slow market forces in to a sudden and largely unexpected metamorphosis.

We had always counted on slow, steady growth. These local backwaters were largely undiscovered by foreign (this is the south, so "foreign" means anyone from out of state or Miami) investors and the strong military presence here meant a steady flow of new dollars in to the economy.

Unlike Silicon Valley we don't have paroxysmmal spikes in the local tax base as new millionaires are hatched out of the dot coms, and unlike Detroit we don't falter as a singular local economy has its tail kicked by the Japanese.

What we do have is a ton of military active duty, retired and dependents that have a steady income with COLA raises. That has always kept the entire economy, real estate included, right about the national average. Just before The Storm we were looking at about 600 closings per month at an appreciation of 8% - 12% per year over the previous 5 years. No surprises.

Since that night in September 2004 we have awoken to a new day - a new paradigm is the current cliche. Things got real wild and now, 2 years and one month later, they are trying for some "normal", although so far we don't know what that normal will be and we sure aren't there yet.

So, follow along. I keep the facts at http://www.pensacolamiltonhomes.com/ and here I report the rumors, hints and allegations. Here you find opinions, reports, guesses and eyes on recon. It's the feet-on-the-ground raw data.

So stick around.

Jordan